It’s been an interesting year for the nation’s housing market. The ‘Polar Vortex’ was blamed for the decrease in home sales in early 2014. Price gains for previously owned homes slowed significantly. However, builder confidence for newly constructed, single-family homes has increased for six straight months. What does it all mean? Experts attribute these confusing signals to a shift out of rapid recovery and into a more stable phase that economists are calling the new normal.
Below are 10 predictions from the experts for the housing market in 2015:
1. Prices will rise more slowly. Housing price gains slowed dramatically in 2014 and are expected to continue in 2015. Easing housing inventory levels and the exit of investors from the market are helping put the brakes on home price escalation. Nationally, prices are near their spring 2005 levels.
2. Affordability will worsen. Unfortunately, for those looking to buy this year, slowing housing prices does not mean that home ownership will be more affordable. Housing experts predict homes are just 3% undervalued now, leaving little room for them to rise without becoming overvalued.
3. The buying frenzy will fade. With more investors leaving the market, the home buying process should be a bit easier in 2015, thanks to a lessened inventory and credit requirements. With rising prices, fewer bargains are on the market, making housing less attractive to investors.
4. Mortgage interest rates will rise. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association predicts that rates will rise to 5% by the end of 2015. For most of 2014 interest rates were flat or declining. A great reminder that economists can make predictions, but not to bet the farm on them.
5. Millennials overtake Gen X as homebuyers. Zillow predicts that by the end of 2015, Millennials (those under the age of 35) will overtake Gen X (35-50 years old) to become the largest group of homebuyers in the U.S.
6. Rent increase will outpace home value growth. Housing experts forecast that rents will rise 3.5% in 2015, outpacing the predicted 2.5% for annual home price gains. This, in turn, may push some Millennials to become buyers. The allure of fixed mortgage payments and a stable housing market is expected to entice more renters to become homebuyers.
7. Multi-family construction will dominate. Trulia’s research indicates that more people will try to sell their homes in 2015 and Realtor.com predicts that existing, or previously owned, home sales will grow 8% this year. The entry of these previously owned homes into the market could suppress the demand for more expensive newly constructed homes. The vacancy rate for single-family homes is still near its recession high, which is likely to further depress construction of new single-family homes. So builders will continue to meet the demand for apartments–and multifamily housing could have another strong year.
8. Builders shift to cheaper homes. In recent years, builders have chosen to build fewer, more expensive homes instead of cheaper homes in larger quantities. The trend—driven in part by a limited supply of land during the recovery–has left a price gap between more expensive new homes and less expensive existing homes. Experts agree that new home sales will top the 500,000 mark in 2015.
9. Foreclosures will match pre-recession levels. From January through November 2014, there were 1,256,070 foreclosure filings in the U.S., according to RealtyTrac, down about 17.2% from the same period the previous year, when there were 1,516,332 filings. In 2015, expect foreclosures to fall to pre-crisis levels.
10. The housing market will be driven by fundamentals. In 2015, the housing market is expected to be driven by underlying economic fundamentals (i.e. – job growth, incomes, and household formation). Mortgage interest rates and price recovery have driven the housing market for years, but now experts predict these factors will not be nearly as important as local economics in 2015.
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Related Resources:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2014/12/18/housing-outlook-2015-11-predictions-from-the-experts/
